Counter Wooden-Headedness and Break Your Echo Chambers

This article explores the importance of ‘good conflict’ in idea generation, decision making, and leadership teams. Add some mental models to your cognitive toolkit to help you develop collective intelligence.

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Photo by Bruno Aguirre on Unsplash

Break Your Echo Chambers

For the first time in my life, the England football team made it to a final of a major competition, the European Championship.

The last time was 1966 when we won the World Cup. Fifty-five years of waiting. (update: still waiting, congratulations Italy)

A lot of attention and credit has gone to Gareth Southgate, the manager of the England football team. I enjoyed Matthew Syed’s article about his leadership and multi-faceted team.

Syed explores the limitations of a homogenous team of like-minded experts.

You would have an echo chamber. They would reflect each other’s assumptions back to each other. It would be comfortable, chummy and consensual. It would also be monolithic and non-creative.

The FA Technical Advisory Board has been advising on performance and development since 2016 and consists of a broad range of different backgrounds:

  • Kath Grainger, an Olympic rower
  • Stuart Lancaster, the rugby coach
  • Manoj Badale, a tech entrepreneur
  • Sir Dave Brailsford, a cycling coach
  • Colonel Lucy Giles, a college commander at the Sandhurst Military Academy
  • David Sheepshanks, the mastermind behind the St George’s Park national football centre.

the group is capable of offering fresh insights on preparation, diet, data, mental fortitude and more. This is sometimes called “divergent” thinking to contrast it with the “convergence” of echo chambers.

Syed concludes by explaining that:

The key is to bring people together whose perspectives are both relevant to the problem, and which are also different from each other. This maximises both “depth” and “range” of knowledge — leading to “collective intelligence”.

Your Talking Points

⟶ How are you creating “depth” and “range” in your team recruitment?

⟶ How are you exploring beyond your industry for insights and innovations?

Euros 2020: What all of us can learn from Gareth Southgate
Part of Gareth Southgate’s success could be his willingness to turn to football outsiders to help prepare his England…www.bbc.com

Counter Wooden-Headedness

The acceptance of divergence and good conflict led me to think about the Tenth Man Principle. This is a mental model or dialogue protocol that has resonated with me for a long time.

The Tenth Man is a devil’s advocate. If there are 10 people in a room and nine agree, the role of the tenth is to disagree and point out flaws in whatever decision the group has reached.

This approach originated after the Yom Kippur War (known in the Arab World as the Ramadan War) in 1973. The Israeli Defence Force’s Intelligence Directorate created a Red Team, a devil’s advocate team that can challenge prevalent assumptions within intelligence bodies.

We have three intertwined mental models or structures we might use.

  • The Tenth Man Principle
  • A Red Team
  • The Devil’s Advocate

You will be familiar with the Devil’s Advocate, a discourse convention of prefacing a dissenting viewpoint with, ‘just to play Devil’s Advocate.’

A Red Team — terminology from the world of security systems — is set up to deliberately challenge and stress a plan or structure to identify weaknesses. We can use this idea to explore alternative viewpoints or offer critique on a proposed project.

The author, William Kaplan, finishes with broader brush strokes. He extends the Tenth Man concept beyond military intelligence and frames the problem in the words of historian Barbara Tuchman as ‘wooden-headedness’.

Wooden-headedness, the source of self-deception, is a factor that plays a remarkably large role in government. It consists of assessing a situation in terms of preconceived or fixed notions while ignoring or rejecting any contrary signs. It is acting according to wish while not allowing oneself to be deflected by the facts. ~ Barbara Tuchman

The Tenth Man Principle and the Red Team or Devil’s Advocate Team are protocols to counter fixed or closed-mindedness.

The purpose of the Tenth Man Principle is to:

  • Challenge conventional and received wisdom;
  • Look at things creatively, independently, and from a fresh perspective;
  • Engage actively with and reconsider the status quo;
  • Search for information and arguments that contradict theses;
  • Provide a sounding board for anyone who wishes to raise issues;
  • Explore alternative assumptions and worst-case scenarios.

This list is a robust set of critical thinking intentions, which in the aggregate, define open-mindedness. We need to increase our open-mindedness to develop innovative solutions to complex problems.

Your Talking Points

⟶ How is your team identifying your assumptions and actively challenging the status quo?

⟶ Discuss the potential trap of missing the best solution because you seek harmony and consensus.

How Israeli intelligence failures led to a ‘devil’s advocate’ role
The October 1973 Yom Kippur War, known in the Arab World as the Ramadan War, showed the risks to Israel of…www.thestar.com

The Value of Dissent and Conflict

When we generate ideas, conventional wisdom encourages a zero feedback zone. We often withhold criticism and feedback as we are sharing ideas. But perhaps that is not always the best technique.

According to research by Charlan Nemeth, and her team, a degree of conflict can increase the number of ideas we generate.

The approach they outline is to encourage open debate and feedback as ideas are shared. Participants are encouraged to communicate freely and not limit any reaction or contribution.

They describe a 25% increase in ideas generated from a debate and critique approach than straightforward brainstorming tasks.

The paper offers some connected insights to our exploration of the value of conflict and diverse teams. Here are some highlights, the second quote directly links to the Tenth Man Principle:

The notion that groups perform better when they share and even confront differences bears some resemblance to the research on the value of dissent and diversity. Diversity is often found to aid the quality of decisions, presumably because of the multiple perspectives that it provides.

in more naturalistic settings, there is evidence that groups with a dissenter make better decisions. Organizations fare better when dissent is valued and expressed.

A further detail referenced in the paper offers some insight into whether it is better to generate ideas on your own or within a team:

individuals working separately generate many more, and more creative (as rated by judges) ideas than do groups, even when the redundancies among member ideas are deleted.

This insight emphasises the importance of designing time to work solo before other team structures for idea generation.

Your Talking Points

⟶ Is there enough trust in this team to use deliberate debate? (see link below to explore this further)

⟶ How do you provide individual time to generate ideas alongside team sessions?


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The OODA Loop – How To Make Decisions At 1000 km/h

The situation with the pandemic means we are stuck in a constant decision-making diagram. In PC (pre-covid) times, we had enough slack to balance the intense management and leadership needed.

I wondered if the military might provide some insight into making decisions under fire – metaphorically and literally. I discovered a model of decision making called the OODA Loop. Read on for an outline of the model and how you can use the techniques in times of uncertainty.

The OODA Loop

The OODA Loop has four phases: Observation, Orientation, Decide and Act.

It was developed in the late 70s by John Boyd, a military strategist, fighter pilot and Colonel in the United States Air Force.

Insights from studying air combat revealed patterns of decision making which Boyd established as the OODA Loop.

All decisions are based on observations of the evolving situation tempered with implicit filtering of the problem being addressed.

Here are the four stages. I tailored the descriptions and questions to how a leadership team might collaborate on the OODA Loop. But they can be easily adapted to a different context.

Observation

Gather data, input and observations about the environment and unfolding context.

  • What do we see?
  • What shared observations do we have?
  • What might we be missing?
  • What feedback are we receiving?

Orientation

Position ourselves to take advantage of what we notice. Orientate ourselves towards the future.

  • What does this information mean for us?
  • What patterns do we notice?
  • What feasible options and actions are there?

Decide

Harness implicit understanding and orientation to make a choice.

  • What does feedforward from Orientation suggest?
  • What course of action responds accurately to the unfolding information?
  • What is our hypothesis?

Act

Implement the decision.

  • What can we test?
  • What are some prototypes that we can run?
  • What feedback are we looking for?
  • What are the signals of impact? What is the first step?
The OODA Loop diagram by Patrick Edwin Moran CC BY 3.0
Patrick Edwin Moran CC BY 3.0

A couple of other notes and ideas resonate with me, which I know you will find helpful.

The OODA Loop Tempo

The key concept with this decision-making model is the pace you move through the loop.

Here is Dr Michael Ryan from the World Health Organisation talking about the speed of response to emergencies, like the ebola outbreak.

Perfection is the enemy of the good when it comes to emergency management. Speed trumps perfection … The greatest error is not to move. The greatest error is to be paralyzed by the fear of failure. If you need to be right before you move, you will never win.

A caveat is the ability to slow the tempo enough to observe and orient with precision. This slower section makes the decide and act phases move faster.

the entire “loop” (not just orientation) is an ongoing many-sided implicit cross-referencing process of projectionempathy, correlation, and rejection.

Analysis Paralysis

You have to guard against this.

Boyd considers the first two phases take the most energy. When we orientate the decision, we access our genetic heritage, cultural traditions, and prior experiences.

In your team, this becomes complex and is often the stumbling block we call paralysis analysis. Your team gets stuck overthinking the information available.

During World War II, Winston Churchill, after hearing that the landing craft designers were spending the majority of their time arguing over design changes, sent this message: “The maxim ‘Nothing avails but perfection’ may be spelt shorter: ‘Paralysis.’”

Feedforward

We use the OODA Loop in rapidly evolving situations, an unfolding environment, or a shifting problem state.

However, if we only focus on feedback, we are always looking to the past.

Feedforward propels us onwards. Information that tips us forwards to the following action. Feedforward helps us identify the next step. In the OODA Loop, it contributes to the next phase.

Boyd’s emphasis on feedforward relates to my ongoing study of critique, assessment and feedback strategies.

Your Talking Points and Next Steps

  • What active channels of input and feedback do you have? (Observation)
  • How are you orientating to the future, not just the past? (Orientation)
  • What is our hypothesis? (Decide)
  • What prototypes can we test? (Act)
  • Identify your signals of stalling. (Analysis Paralysis)
  • Elicit ideas and information that propels you onward. (Feedforward)
  • Guard against rushing the observation and orientation phase. (Tempo)

Thanks for exploring this model with me; I hope it helps you improve the speed and precision of your decision making.


This article is a Dialogic Learning Weekly. Regular inspiration to save you time and provoke your thinking—a newsletter designed to build your cognitive toolkit and enhance your practice.

“Exactly the nourishment I need every week.”