The situation with the pandemic means we are stuck in a constant decision-making diagram. In PC (pre-covid) times, we had enough slack to balance the intense management and leadership needed.
I wondered if the military might provide some insight into making decisions under fire – metaphorically and literally. I discovered a model of decision making called the OODA Loop. Read on for an outline of the model and how you can use the techniques in times of uncertainty.
The OODA Loop
The OODA Loop has four phases: Observation, Orientation, Decide and Act.
It was developed in the late 70s by John Boyd, a military strategist, fighter pilot and Colonel in the United States Air Force.
Insights from studying air combat revealed patterns of decision making which Boyd established as the OODA Loop.
All decisions are based on observations of the evolving situation tempered with implicit filtering of the problem being addressed.
Here are the four stages. I tailored the descriptions and questions to how a leadership team might collaborate on the OODA Loop. But they can be easily adapted to a different context.
Observation
Gather data, input and observations about the environment and unfolding context.
- What do we see?
- What shared observations do we have?
- What might we be missing?
- What feedback are we receiving?
Orientation
Position ourselves to take advantage of what we notice. Orientate ourselves towards the future.
- What does this information mean for us?
- What patterns do we notice?
- What feasible options and actions are there?
Decide
Harness implicit understanding and orientation to make a choice.
- What does feedforward from Orientation suggest?
- What course of action responds accurately to the unfolding information?
- What is our hypothesis?
Act
Implement the decision.
- What can we test?
- What are some prototypes that we can run?
- What feedback are we looking for?
- What are the signals of impact? What is the first step?
A couple of other notes and ideas resonate with me, which I know you will find helpful.
The OODA Loop Tempo
The key concept with this decision-making model is the pace you move through the loop.
Here is Dr Michael Ryan from the World Health Organisation talking about the speed of response to emergencies, like the ebola outbreak.
Perfection is the enemy of the good when it comes to emergency management. Speed trumps perfection … The greatest error is not to move. The greatest error is to be paralyzed by the fear of failure. If you need to be right before you move, you will never win.
A caveat is the ability to slow the tempo enough to observe and orient with precision. This slower section makes the decide and act phases move faster.
the entire “loop” (not just orientation) is an ongoing many-sided implicit cross-referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection.
Analysis Paralysis
You have to guard against this.
Boyd considers the first two phases take the most energy. When we orientate the decision, we access our genetic heritage, cultural traditions, and prior experiences.
In your team, this becomes complex and is often the stumbling block we call paralysis analysis. Your team gets stuck overthinking the information available.
During World War II, Winston Churchill, after hearing that the landing craft designers were spending the majority of their time arguing over design changes, sent this message: “The maxim ‘Nothing avails but perfection’ may be spelt shorter: ‘Paralysis.’”
Feedforward
We use the OODA Loop in rapidly evolving situations, an unfolding environment, or a shifting problem state.
However, if we only focus on feedback, we are always looking to the past.
Feedforward propels us onwards. Information that tips us forwards to the following action. Feedforward helps us identify the next step. In the OODA Loop, it contributes to the next phase.
Boyd’s emphasis on feedforward relates to my ongoing study of critique, assessment and feedback strategies.
Your Talking Points and Next Steps
- What active channels of input and feedback do you have? (Observation)
- How are you orientating to the future, not just the past? (Orientation)
- What is our hypothesis? (Decide)
- What prototypes can we test? (Act)
- Identify your signals of stalling. (Analysis Paralysis)
- Elicit ideas and information that propels you onward. (Feedforward)
- Guard against rushing the observation and orientation phase. (Tempo)
Thanks for exploring this model with me; I hope it helps you improve the speed and precision of your decision making.
This article is a Dialogic Learning Weekly. Regular inspiration to save you time and provoke your thinking—a newsletter designed to build your cognitive toolkit and enhance your practice.
“Exactly the nourishment I need every week.”