Category: Mental Models

The OODA Loop – How To Make Decisions At 1000 km/h

Decision Making, Mental ModelsPublished onUpdated onLeave a Comment on The OODA Loop – How To Make Decisions At 1000 km/h

The situation with the pandemic means we are stuck in a constant decision-making diagram. In PC (pre-covid) times, we had enough slack to balance the intense management and leadership needed.

I wondered if the military might provide some insight into making decisions under fire – metaphorically and literally. I discovered a model of decision making called the OODA Loop. Read on for an outline of the model and how you can use the techniques in times of uncertainty.

The OODA Loop

​The OODA Loop has four phases: Observation, Orientation, Decide and Act.

It was developed in the late 70s by John Boyd, a military strategist, fighter pilot and Colonel in the United States Air Force.

Insights from studying air combat revealed patterns of decision making which Boyd established as the OODA Loop.

All decisions are based on observations of the evolving situation tempered with implicit filtering of the problem being addressed.

Here are the four stages. I tailored the descriptions and questions to how a leadership team might collaborate on the OODA Loop. But they can be easily adapted to a different context.

Observation

Gather data, input and observations about the environment and unfolding context.

  • What do we see?
  • What shared observations do we have?
  • What might we be missing?
  • What feedback are we receiving?

Orientation

Position ourselves to take advantage of what we notice. Orientate ourselves towards the future.

  • What does this information mean for us?
  • What patterns do we notice?
  • What feasible options and actions are there?

Decide

Harness implicit understanding and orientation to make a choice.

  • What does feedforward from Orientation suggest?
  • What course of action responds accurately to the unfolding information?
  • What is our hypothesis?

Act

Implement the decision.

  • What can we test?
  • What are some prototypes that we can run?
  • What feedback are we looking for?
  • What are the signals of impact? What is the first step?
The OODA Loop diagram by Patrick Edwin Moran CC BY 3.0
Patrick Edwin Moran CC BY 3.0

A couple of other notes and ideas resonate with me, which I know you will find helpful.

The OODA Loop Tempo

The key concept with this decision-making model is the pace you move through the loop.

Here is Dr Michael Ryan from the World Health Organisation talking about the speed of response to emergencies, like the ebola outbreak.

Perfection is the enemy of the good when it comes to emergency management. Speed trumps perfection … The greatest error is not to move. The greatest error is to be paralyzed by the fear of failure. If you need to be right before you move, you will never win.

A caveat is the ability to slow the tempo enough to observe and orient with precision. This slower section makes the decide and act phases move faster.

the entire “loop” (not just orientation) is an ongoing many-sided implicit cross-referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection.

Analysis Paralysis

You have to guard against this.

Boyd considers the first two phases take the most energy. When we orientate the decision, we access our genetic heritage, cultural traditions, and prior experiences.

In your team, this becomes complex and is often the stumbling block we call paralysis analysis. Your team gets stuck overthinking the information available.

During World War II, Winston Churchill, after hearing that the landing craft designers were spending the majority of their time arguing over design changes, sent this message: “The maxim ‘Nothing avails but perfection’ may be spelt shorter: ‘Paralysis.’”

Feedforward

We use the OODA Loop in rapidly evolving situations, an unfolding environment, or a shifting problem state.

However, if we only focus on feedback, we are always looking to the past.

Feedforward propels us onwards. Information that tips us forwards to the following action. Feedforward helps us identify the next step. In the OODA Loop, it contributes to the next phase.

Boyd’s emphasis on feedforward relates to my ongoing study of critique, assessment and feedback strategies.​

Your Talking Points and Next Steps

  • What active channels of input and feedback do you have? (Observation)
  • How are you orientating to the future, not just the past? (Orientation)
  • What is our hypothesis? (Decide)
  • What prototypes can we test? (Act)
  • Identify your signals of stalling. (Analysis Paralysis)
  • ​Elicit ideas and information that propels you onward. (Feedforward)
  • Guard against rushing the observation and orientation phase. (Tempo)

Thanks for exploring this model with me; I hope it helps you improve the speed and precision of your decision making.

This article is a Dialogic Learning Weekly. Regular inspiration to save you time and provoke your thinking—a newsletter designed to build your cognitive toolkit and enhance your practice.

“Exactly the nourishment I need every week.”

#227 Inspired By Nature

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This week I enjoyed reading about a new surgical instrument that a parasitic wasp inspired. Not so much the parasitic wasp part 🐝, but the origin story of the innovation.

Biomimicry

A team at Imperial College London are rapidly developing a robotic, flexible needle that can bend to reach difficult locations. The mechanism is inspired by female parasitoid wasps, which use a bendable needle-like ovipositor to bore into wood to lay eggs in hiding host larvae.

Serendipity is a beautiful thing! I stumbled on the unique qualities of this particular wasp when Professor Julian Vincent, who is a friend and colleague, explained at a dinner how the curved ovipositor worked. Suddenly, I wondered whether we could mimic this attribute in robotic medical technology to improve the delivery of treatments. … we now have a medical-grade, clinically sized working prototype, which we hope will ultimately improve outcomes and recovery times for patients with brain diseases.

Dr Ferdinando Rodriguez y Baena, Imperial College.

This is an example of biomimicry. Might you be more familiar with the classic Velcro invention story? The hooks on plant seeds that help them disperse inspired George de Mestral to create the first hook and loop fastener.

Did you know that Velcro is a portmanteau of “velvet” and “crochet” (literally, “hook” in French).

Biomimicry is a practice that learns from and mimics the strategies found in nature to solve human design challenges — and find hope along the way.

Biomimicry Institute

Drawing inspiration from natural solutions requires a mindset ready for serendipity. The following mental model explains the reason why we often miss these moments of inspiration.

The Streetlight Effect

The Streetlight Effect can explain one block to new ideas and innovative solutions. You might have heard of this observational bias, demonstrated in the story of the drunk looking for his keys:

A policeman sees a drunk man searching for something under a streetlight and asks what the drunk has lost. He says he lost his keys and they both look under the streetlight together. After a few minutes the policeman asks if he is sure he lost them here, and the drunk replies, no, and that he lost them in the park. The policeman asks why he is searching here, and the drunk replies, “this is where the light is”.

The Streetlight Effect

Sometimes people look for the next breakthrough idea in the most accessible place. They filter for ideas closely related to their work or too similar to their context. That search is doomed to mediocrity. At best, it was a marginal alteration and not the breakthrough they were hoping for.

It may be easier to look at what the school down the road is doing, but that limits what is possible.

The streetlight effect is a helpful bias to reflect on when we develop potential solutions.

What more can we do to counter this bias?

Explore Beyond Your Industry

The strategy that might be the key to your next breakthrough is to explore beyond your industry.

A lovely example that I often think about is the emergency doctors who consulted with Ferrari F1 mechanics to improve their intensive care unit handoff practice. The doctors at Great Ormond Street Children’s Hospital had their moment of serendipity whilst watching the motor racing.

Another healthcare example is Rotterdam Eye Hospital, which implemented six aviation industry innovations such as black box recording, risk analysis, patient taxi service, and valet parking.

Observations indicated that the innovations positively affected quality and safety in the hospital: Waiting times were reduced, work processes became more standardised, the number of wrong-site surgeries decreased, and awareness of patient safety was heightened.

Diffusing aviation innovations in a hospital in The Netherlands. 

Let’s have a look at some actions to make a start with some of these ideas.

Your Next Creative Step

To explore beyond your industry or analogous idea exploration is a powerful technique.

It encourages you to:

The next time you are at the idea generation stage, hit the pause button and recognise the bias of looking for inspiration in familiar places. Identify and explore similar experiences.

You might need to break out of your industry to find breakthrough ideas.

How To Improve With The Start Stop Continue Retrospective

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The Start Stop Continue routine has been around for decades. It is commonly used as a ‘retrospective’ activity in Agile development and Scrum meetings.

Our development toolkit is filled with templates, activities and protocols for reflection, but often the simplest tool can be the most effective.

In this post, I explore the fundamental components of the reflection, how you can use it and the benefits. I also share an extended version that gives you some new options to try in your next review session.

Before you finish make sure you grab a copy of the editable PDF resource for the Start Stop Continue extended version. You can use it in your next meeting.

Start Stop Continue

In its simplest form, the protocol explores the three actions of its namesake. When you are reviewing the development of your project or even your own teaching practice, ask these three simple questions.

  • What should I stop doing?
  • What should I keep doing?
  • What should I start doing?

What are the benefits?

  • Provides a clear and comprehensive structure for agreeing on and setting actions.
  • Helps teams explore different types of improvements, using three different triggers.
  • Makes it easier for individuals to talk about what is not working and clarify issues.
  • Simple and memorable enough to be conducted quickly with little preparation.
  • Flexible enough to be valuable for individuals or large teams.

How do I facilitate the Start Stop Continue?

The first thing to do is grab a copy of the editable PDF resource for the Start Stop Continue. All of the sample questions below are included in the download.

This retrospective model will help you and your team explore what is working, what is not effective and what might be useful to try.

To support this and make it easier for participants, use some of the example questions below:

Start

  • What practices do you need to START doing?
  • Outline some of the new ideas that you want to start?
  • What are the habits you want to start?

Stop

  • What negative practices do you need to STOP?
  • What are the low-impact processes which need to stop?
  • What do you need to stop investing in?

Continue

  • What established practices do you need to CONTINUE doing?
  • Which aspects of your work need to be maintained?
  • What needs continued investment to maintain the impact you want to see?

A useful hack from Sarah Beldo, Head of Content and Communications at Miro, is to switch the order a little:

I’ve found that people find it easier to think about what already exists – both the good (“continue”) and the bad (“stop”), before venturing into uncharted territory (“start”).

Sarah Beldo, 7 retrospective templates we love and use at Miro
Start Stop Continue

Extend Your Reflection

Beyond the core Start Stop Continue routine, we can extend the reflection protocol in a few different directions. I think these provocations offer some much-needed nuance to the activity.

For example, the option to Pause, and not just Stop, is a useful distinction. The addition of shifting the thinking frame forward and back in time helps us to consider some important strategic modes of reflection.

I have developed the following additional provocations to complement the core trio and help you facilitate a comprehensive reflection.

Improve

  • What aspects of your practice can you IMPROVE?
  • Which parts of your project have room for growth?
  • What changes can you make to increase the impact?

Pause

  • Which elements of our work need to be PAUSED to allow resources to shift elsewhere?
  • Which projects would benefit from a short developmental hiatus?
  • Which projects are a priority and would benefit from other elements being PAUSED?

Fast Forward

  • Which aspects of this project would benefit from an increase in pace?
  • How might we increase the speed of development?
  • In the future what might be a block or challenge to the success of this?

Rewind

  • What have we learned from the story of development so far?
  • If we returned to the beginning of this project what would we start with?
  • What can we learn from how this problem was handled in the past?

Challenge

  • Which assumptions do we need to CHALLENGE?
  • What bias do you need to talk about and better understand?
  • What will you do to disrupt and challenge the status quo?

Download your editable PDF

If you are interested in this extended version of the model you can download an editable PDF. Just subscribe to my weekly newsletter and I will send you a copy.

Potential Uses and Applications

  • You have reached the end of a teaching placement, and you want to capture your reflections.
  • Your team is making progress with the implementation of a new programme prototype and you want to refine the approach.
  • You want a simple structure to use with your coach to reflect on the past few weeks.
  • During a weekly catchup with one of your team, you want to implement a simple structure for personal/professional mentorship.
  • At the beginning of the term, you want a framework for some collective reflection for your class.
  • You have moved into new learning spaces and need a tool to review what is working and what needs changing.

Further Reading and Resources

7 retrospective templates we love and use at Miro – MiroBlog | A blog by Miro. (2020)

Start, Stop, Continue Tutorial by Say, M. | Forbes. (2021)

The Stop, Start, Continue Approach To Feedback | The World of Work Project. (2019)

Start Stop Continue Template & Start Stop Continue Retrospective | Miro Template Library. (2021)

The Shape of the Lens

Featured, Leadership, Mental Models, ThinkingPublished onUpdated on2 Comments on The Shape of the Lens

Inspired by an optics metaphor used in ethnography, this mental model explores our perception and understanding of behaviour. Use it as part of your team’s developmental dialogue and process.

Seeing through a lens

We all bring a different perspective to the challenges we face. My story and my experience is my bias. Recognising this foundational truth to collaboration is an important step.

Explore with your team the lenses that can be held up to view the situation you are in. Consider the lenses that are present in your group and those perspectives not immediately present.

However we are not just looking through a lens, we are attempting to see. Consider what it takes to shift our perspective and reveal gaps in our understanding. Follow your curiosity and deepen your understanding of alternative perspectives.

Your Talking Points

  • How does my bias impact what I see here?
  • Are we all using the same lens on this situation?
  • What combination of lenses might offer something new?
  • Which lenses are more opaque to us?
  • Which perspective should be represented more clearly?

Hold up a mirror

A further step is to hold up a mirror and consider our own participation in an issue, problem or challenge. Am I part of the problem?

When we look back, at first, we may identify the role we play or acknowledge our influence on an issue. We may reflect on the positive, negative or neutral impact we have on a situation.

When we look closer and see ourselves, we increase self-awareness which is an important trigger for learning and growth. Reflexivity is that circular loop of seeing and changing because we see.

Look through a lens, but hold up a mirror too.

Your Talking Points

  • How does this situation provoke my thinking?
  • What am I noticing my thinking is drifting to?
  • How might I change as a result of this?
  • What harm might I be causing?
  • This has helped me to change because…

What’s in the shadows?

Ethnographic studies of human behaviour often refer to the goal, to uncover the unmet needs or poorly defined issues. For our model here we describe that as exploring what is in the shadows.

These are issues or challenges at the root of behaviour. However they may be masked, obscured or in shadow from everyone. With your team explore the shadows and consider what is poorly represented, unspoken or missing from your dialogue and discussion.

It is a challenge to see what is cloaked and obfuscated. This takes time. Commit to your inquiry and use a range of data sources to reveal more and more. Perhaps data becomes your torch exploring and illuminating the shadow.

Your Talking Points

  • A blind spot for me is…
  • What are we not paying attention to?
  • How do we know this is the right problem to be solving?
  • What is distracting our attention here?
  • If we looked in the opposite direction what might we see?

See through a lens ~ Hold up a mirror ~ Explore the shadows

Photo by Jon Eric Marababol

Will this cause harm?

Mental ModelsPublished on1 Comment on Will this cause harm?

I have been reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s brilliantly tangential book Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder.

A concept and mental model he shares is iatrogenics. This is a medical term that refers to “harmful unintended side effects”.

In Antifragile, he writes:

In the case of tonsillectomies, the harm to the children undergoing unnecessary treatment is coupled with the trumpeted gain for some others. The name for such net loss, the (usually bitten or delayed) damage from treatment in excess of the benefits, is iatrogenics.

Iatro– means “a physician; medicine; healing,” from Greek iatros “healer, physician”. –genic means “producing, pertaining to generation.” So harm caused by a healer.

While some have advocated using ‘iatrogenesis’ to refer to all ‘events caused by the health care delivery team’, whether ‘positive or negative’, consensus limits use of ‘iatrogenesis’ to adverse effects, possibly including, broadly, all adverse unforeseen outcomes resulting from medication or other medical treatment or intervention.

(Iatrogenesis)

Taleb extends this concept beyond medicine and it has helped me think about the total impact of any intervention.

When we intervene without a full appreciation of the potential positive and negative effects, Taleb describes this practice as  “naive interventionism”.

What does this look like in other fields like education?

In schools these interventions might be a simple timetable change from one year to the next. You may be experiencing that now – as the the new academic year in Australia has just started. Perhaps you are only just realising the negative impact of that extended first session or the longer lunchtime.

Perhaps something more significant like streaming in primary maths classes causes obvious missed opportunities for building relationships – perhaps the negative impact outweighs the positive. We are causing more harm than good – this is iatrogenics.

I experienced many primary schools in the UK with complex intervention programmes for students I taught in my classes. I don’t remember ever fully evaluating the negative side effects of those interventions and how they were delivered.

Taleb suggests any intervention will have iatrogenics – the question for leaders is whether we are even aware of them?

It is easy to begin to use the mental model of iatrogenics in your development planning – all we have to do is ask ourselves a few questions:

  • “Will this cause harm?”
  • “How might we understand the negative impact of this idea?”
  • “What can we do to minimise the negative impact?”
  • “How will we know if the negative impact of this outweighs the positive?”
  • “What would happen if we did nothing?”

#28daysofwriting

Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash